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    Which Factors Will Affect the Results of the UK General Election

    In recent years, the UK has experienced a rare political uncertainty in history. However, despite the performance since the Brexit referendum, the political situation in the UK still maintains strong adaptability and resilience. Based on the current political situation in Britain, we look onthe general election in the UK from a relatively macro perspective, and look at the issue from different perspectives of political parties and people. This paper analyzes the three factors that may affect the outcome of the British election, such as different strategies for different political parties to deal with immigration, voter psychology, party competition and development.

    Political parties

    The support rate of political parties will most directly affect the election result. According to the latest published YouGov and Sunday Times joint polls, the Conservative Party’s support rate remained unchanged at 42%; the Labour Party’s approval rate fell 1% to 38%; the Liberal Democratic Party’s approval rate rose 2% to 9%; the British Independent Party supported rate remains unchanged at 4%. According to ICM/Sun's polls, the Conservative Party's support rate is 45%, and the Labor Party's support rate is 34%. In order to win the support of voters, various political parties have put forward their own policies and commitments. The current Conservative Party, where Prime Minister Teresa May is located, ensure that the UK will “successfully and orderly” leave the EU and promise that the UK will leave the European Common Market as well as the EU Customs Union. The Labor Party, led by the largest opposition leader, Corbin, proposed on May 16 that those who earn more than £80,000 and £123,000 will be forced to increase their income tax rates. The Liberal Democrats, led by Tim Farron, promised to hold a second referendum in the election campaign on May 17. Driven by these policies, the support of voters is constantly changing. For example, on the issue of immigration, different political parties adopt different attitudes. In the face of employment, housing and infrastructure are under increasing pressure. Overseas immigrants have had a huge impact on unemployment, life and safety of the UK. As next year's elections approach, the parties will be in line with public opinion, and more and more calls for reducing immigration have become a trend. The Conservative Party has made it clear that the Brexit means that the free movement of the people should be end. The statement pointed out that the UK will be able to control EU immigration for the first time in decades. Other political parties also have different policies on immigration issues. (Qiu, 2010) The Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats propose to immediately protect all existing rights of EU nationals and seek to provide the same rights to British citizens in other parts of the EU. The Liberal Democrats are clearly committed to maintaining a single market and maintaining the current free flow of people.

    Under the influence of this trend, the Conservative Party's tightening policy on immigration issues (Guo, 2016) will put them in a favorable position in the competition. The Labour Party’s secret plan to increase immigration is not good for it to gain the support of voters. Now both parties in the UK are in trouble and the two sides may maintain British politics for some time. The current statusquo, but continuing, will be difficult to avoid the recombination of political power. If both sides are in trouble, which side can break the deadlock and break through, then it will be more likely to dominate the situation.

    will put them in a favorable position in the competition. The Labour Party’s secret plan to increase immigration

    Social classes

    The seven major social classes in the UK have different influences on the outcome of the election. The decline in Conservative Party public opinion is mainly attributed to adjustment of the social care service payment plan for “dementia tax”. This policy hurts seniorsmost, especially those with Alzheimer's disease who can't take care of themselves. It directly leads to the loss of support from a large number of elderly people. Looking at the British general election from the perspective of different classes of society, when a party’s policy undermines the interests of a particular class, it will inevitably lose its support rate and lose the edge in the election. Fiona Devine, a professor of sociology at the University of Manchester, said that the seven major classes in the UK are fighting for their own interests. The slogan of the Independent party's anti-immigrant and anti-government elite is very attractive to voters who think they are left behind by globalization and are most affected by the recession. More voters, many of whom have chosen the Independence Party's different politics. It has attracted a political elite who does not understand the difficulties of ordinary people, undermining the Tories ' prospects of attracting blue-collar voters. Considering many factors such as education, compensation, career and family assets, the BBC's Great British Class Survey found that there are seven different classes in the UK, with the elite class accounting for 6% of the total population. Less than the number of working and middle classes.


    In this case, people with relatively low status are eager to change their status quo. Mike Savage believes that short-term social mobility within the middle class relies mainly on social change and replacement to access social and cultural resources. In this case, the election naturally becomes an opportunity. All classes have the right to vote and speak.

    Voter psychology

    Britain is at the crossroads of its historical destiny. In addition to the temporary national pride, Brexit brings more endless uncertainty to the UK. In order to minimize the impacts of Brexit on various industries, the UK hopes to reach a free trade agreement with the EU, but only the financial expenditures and staff secondments used to negotiate the Brexit will greatly affect the normal development of other areas. The reality is that the overall price level in the UK is rising and the speed of trade and economic growth is greatly affected. Even the dominance of the labor market that the UK is trying to recover is not a simple matter. Many retail, hotel, medical insurance, engineering and construction industries that enjoy the protection of the EU's common agricultural policy have also suffered a certain blow; agriculture, higher education and other aspects will face a very serious crisis. The anxiety of the people's subconscious is greatly enhanced. The British were a little aware of this, and they inadvertently entered an era of crisis. In the face of what happened, they simply don't know who they can rely on. True horror is an incomprehensible life and an incomprehensible era. Therefore, British voters in the context of Brexit history will certainly show abnormal anxiety. Under anxious leadership, which party can use strong measures to stabilize the situation, resolve the crisis, and appease the people will win the support of the voters.


    Through this series of analysis, we find that: based on the status quo of British political development, the most important factor affecting the election is the game between the parties; in society, the classes will definitely weigh for their own interests, benefit and avoid, choose The party that benefits itself or fits the political interests of the class; under the combined effect of these two factors, the psychology of the voters changes. The interaction of various elements affects the outcome of the election.

    Editor: Huang Jiajia

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